tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg January 25, 2018 1:00am-2:30am EST
good morning from bloomberg's new european headquarters. i am anna edwards. manus: i am manus cranny. these are your top stories. anna: rhetoric from mnuchin it's the dollar sent in the currency to its lowest level in three years. , donald trumptime says he would look to speak undergrowth about the russia probe. today the u.s. president arrives in davos. anna: the first policy meeting of the year with investors looking for comments on the stronger euro and the timing of policy changes. ♪
anna: good morning. this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." we are live from the forum in davos. we have another great lineup for you. good morning, haslinda. haslinda: good morning. we have plenty of guests. president of institute of international finance. and jes staleyde and we will also bring you an exclusive interview with theresa may here from davos. we will speak brexit and our relations with the u.s. lots coming up throughout the day. manus: haslinda, great job. forward to those interviews. breaking news coming from nordea, we have a conversation later. they are the only systemically
important bank in scandinavia. derisking the bank continues in terms of the numbers, 4.27 billion is what they are just 4.6 7 billion is what they have delivered in the fourth quarter. 4.67 billion a little bit below the lines. they are confident that the net profit will grow in 2018. ofhade below the estimates 1.15. they are not satisfied with the proper development in the latter part of 2017. why? that is one of the questions we will put to casper. they are set to move their business to helsinki from stockholm. how is that progressing? will they let debts will he let his staff treatment going?
-- will he let his staff treat trade that coin. -- trade bitcoin. 2017 has been quite a strong period, the stock of the companies have reflected that. we've seen smart components, solid demand. meant they'ves been able to welcome -- been able to bulk up in the past year. we will see what they have managed to deliver. those numbers starting to come through. we are also getting breaking news coming through from the saudi's and the chemical space. they are buying a stake in the chemicals company, that is clarion. they are buying it from cortex
management. no deal valued is provided they said the value of the deal doesn't extent just doesn't exceed 10%. let's get to the markets overnight. what do we need to know about hasthe mnuchin moment impacted various asset classes? slipping just a little bit in the asian session. concern about global trade. the question hanging over davos, are the moves we saw from the united states around trade, are they going to fit into the wedge? we get more of the same. the dollar is on the back foot. gains.p 1%, extending get the bloomberg first word news with juliette saly.
juliette: u.s. president donald trump has said he would love to talk undergrowth to special counsel robert mueller who is investigating whether anyone close to him colluded with russia during the 2016 campaign. jones lawyers have been talking to miller and his aides. they met last month with the special prosecution team and have spoken by phone. warned turkey against expanding its military offensive against kurdish fighters in northern syria. he told president erdogan that such action could lead to conflict with u.s. forces. trump urged turkey to guess late military actions and avoid civilian casualties. in china there has been a strong signal that the pboc's long-standing governor may be read -- maybe ready to tire.
he is not being reselected as a member of the countries 13th national committee. his absence signals he is likely to retire from the central bank before march when the conference usually holds its annual meeting. bazillion appeals court has unanimously upheld a sentence against former president -- against the former president. they voted to increase his prison sentence to over 12 years. it overkill since chances -- it overkill's his chances of winning the election. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. you can find more stories on the bloomberg at top . checking in on the markets here in asia. a little bit of a mixed picture. closing out the session down by 1.1%.
you have seen hong kong's hang seng snap that record winning streak. chinese chairs listed in hong kong, they've been up for 90 sessions -- chinese shares listed in hong kong, they have been up for 90 sessions. hyundai of stocks, coming under a little bit of pressure initially it up by 1.3% . for the quarter operating profit missed estimates. was due to labor strikes and a stronger one. -- stronger won. china is falling down by 6% in hong kong. it is going to delay the opening of its casino. having a little bit of trouble speaking. manus: get yourself a nice glass of water and a lozenge. let's talk about wall street. they are one in up to donald trump. the heads of some of the u.s.
biggest banks have said that the president's policies will help was economic growth. bloombergn spoke to yesterday. >> the american public, the total net debt is $15 trillion. if you change the 15 to 16, it doesn't matter that much. the problem was we have to fix is it goes like this and then it starting 10 years out, he goes 150%.5% of gdp to all of that is based upon medical and we need to fix it. it is a longer-term problem. the sooner we get out of it, the better. economists now the are coming out and saying it will add to growth. it is going to make up the $1 trillion. >> this dynamic affect? >> .2% growth.
>> your company does business all over the world. ,oes the president's quasi-this desk was i isolationist, and immigration rhetoric into your ability to operate an american company? jb: i wouldld -- not agree -- i focus on the policy issues. i think the president's has raised some important issues. we should negotiate them in ways that make sense. if you do have a trade war, that would upset benefits we are getting. when they go around the world, we advise a lot of other countries we try to do the right thing. -- when we go around the world, we advise a lot of other countries. we try to do the right thing. >> emerge from the kroos -- the post crisis.
-- post crisis period, how long is it going to take before the europeans and the chinese start to do something about that? sidesm sympathetic to all . they started in a different position. in europe, they have been changing regulations. america had a better recovery. for-profit banks, more capital to start with. now it is time to stop doing this and let people deal with it. --s on growth and when the have some growth. they need to work together. anna: there was erik schatzker speaking to jamie dimon. helicopters providing the backdrop. manus: it was not trump's helicopter, was it?
today.rump is arriving he has been much talked about. andeard from jamie dimon other banking ceos, some defense of trump's policies to date. what is the mood like ahead of his arrival? has low -- haslinda: anticipation. a lot of leaders say they are anticipating. whether also wondering trump being trump will spring some surprise. he is the first u.s. president to make it to davos and more than 20 years. his presence has surprised many. if you're wondering what he is likely to say, i think his tweet overnight really tells us what he wants to do. he says, we will be heading to davos and we are going to tell the world how great america is doing. our economy is now going and with all i am doing it will only
get better. our country is finally winning again. that really is the message. the economics team is in town. mnuchin and wilbur ross. we heard from mnuchin how a weaker dollar is great for the economy, great for the world and we heard from wilbur ross saying , be ready for a trade war. this really has started some kind of reaction. china's top advisor is in town. china which is on the brink of a full-blown trade war with the u.s. will continue to open up its economy to global investors. he says some other measures that will be implemented will be beyond the expectations of international community. all of these stories are intertwined. indeed.hey are haslinda, good to see you. we put a chart together.
this whole davos dollar debate, i wonder where it will rank. the plaza accord back in the late 80's. it talks about various interventions by various treasury secretaries. lloyd bentsen in 1993, ruben in 1995. the question of course is the yuan is strengthening. the yen is strengthening. haslinda, surely in the last couple of days, it is going to be about currency that the davos glitterati focus. haslinda: the currencies will be a focus. the currencies are always the focus. here is the global economy is doing well. speak to any ceo, any global leader, they will say the economy is doing well, better than most people would've
expected. it comes with risks. the anti-globalization sentiment is a big risk. trade war is a big risk. these are issues that will play out into the currency market. anna: haslinda, thank you very much. plenty to talk about, currency. what will mario draghi say about the strength of the euro? chipmaker, they are announcing a change in their management. the cfo is stepping down. the deputy ceo is going to become the next president and ceo, this marks the departure of carlos. april of lecture, his mandate did it for a year. made just the coo was made the deputy ceo.
-- the coo was made the w ceo. we get further details of that move today. manus: we take their move versus what texas instruments has been saying. the chip selloff goes global and analysts debate. are we at the cycle peak? let's talk about what is coming up. team adam, the president of the institute of international finance. he joins the team next. anna: christine lagarde, she will be joining us to talk about what she hopes will be achieved at the world economic forum. ♪
anna: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." a balmy minus two in davos just a bad. we will be speaking to the u.k. prime minister theresa may live from the world's life economic forum. here is juliette saly. presidentanna, as trump is set to arrive in davos, his top economic advisers have set the stage for the rollout of his america first manifesto bicycling a tougher stance on trade. the dollar has had its deepest slide since march. steve mnuchin said a weaker currency is good for u.s. trade. wilbur ross said that any protectionist agenda in america pales in comparison to china. in a panel at the world economic forum yesterday he faced a group of strong champions of
globalization. that is your bloomberg business flash. manus: juliette, think you very much. trump is scheduled to arrive in davos forming a number of positive comments from wall street chiefs. we just heard from jamie dimon. let's get back to haslinda. like let manus, seems the good times roll. i am joined by tim adams. good to have you with us. everybody is upbeat. there is so much optimism it is pretty scary. tim: everyone is in a good mood. it is good for clients, markets. haslinda: fundamentals are in place. imf raise the forecast for most of the countries. we spoke to the pm of russia and he said gross pti is 2%. tim: we had a slow growth, many countries in recession.
the economy looks better now than it has since precrisis. people have been patient for the recovery. haslinda: you must be concerned about the complacency in the market. we talk about geopolitics. we talk about major central banks moving at the same time, yet people don't really care. those are risks. tim: live levered up the global economy. it feels very light cycle with respect to -- trade frictions are challenged. people are kind of tossing that aside and looking at the underlying economics. haslinda: the end of easy money. has that impacted the market? tim cook marks a price to perfection. -- tim: markets are priced to perfection. the assumption is they are going to transition to somebody else and do it smoothly.
i expect that is the case but things can always go wrong. haslinda: trump says he can be credited for the economy and the turnaround in the u.s. economy. can he? tim: tax reform has been a huge used -- huge boost. animal spirits have come back into the corporate board rooms. the recovery was in place before he got there and he gave it a supercharged boost. haslinda: have you been surprised by the warmer response to trump now? when we spoke to wall street ceos, they were pretty forthcoming as opposed to one year ago? tim: he has been good for bottom line, business. they are looking past the rhetorical smoke and understand what the real policy agenda is. haslinda: what would you like to hear from trump? embraces economic
integration, trade. we want to open markets but we don't want to close the musty markets and embrace the global community. haslinda: wilbur ross said a trade war is coming. he saw tariffs being imposed on solar panels as well as washing machines. is there a potential of a full-blown trade war between the u.s. and china? what are the implications? tim: i hope not. there are a lot of chinese officials here asking that question. we have seen it garden-variety trade response. the fact base is pretty solid. we can move beyond their if we withdraw from nafta -- beyond there if we withdraw from nafta. haslinda: china will implement further mergers -- further measures to open up its economy, possibly to appease the u.s. what can china due to better relations between the two countries so a trade war can be avoided?
is: a lot of what the u.s. asking is in china's best interest. trump -- they want property rights protection. the chinese know what to do. they are going to look for ways to engage with the u.s. in a very quiet of spirit. i don't think they are going to take a trade war lightly. haslinda: currencies, manus was mentioning how currencies at record levels. how will that play out? tim: we heard some commentary yesterday. look, policymakers and politicians have limited could policy just limited policy influence. -- limited policy influence. theets will determine exchange rates, not policymakers rhetoric. haslinda: we have got to talk about cryptocurrencies. bitcoin, cerium. is this a new thing?
tim: i think there is some unbelievable and breathtaking technology underlying a lot of these cryptocurrencies. the are some questions about bitcoin and other currencies. the technology is real. we are in a whole new business space. the risk is unknown. that is one of our top policies into 2018 is to better understand the risks, and also the use cases for these technologies which are pretty profound. haslinda: how can regulators cooperate where the cryptocurrency space is concerned? bring policies together. we will see more out of us in the coming year. haslinda: interesting stuff. , that is it. just the start of the day. anna: haslinda, think you very much. very fascinating conversation.
garden-variety trade response. blackrock chairman and ceo, larry fink will be joining our team. that.l stay tuned for we'll talk about the banking sector. manus: one of the lines we have seen is no idea, they delivered -- is nordea, they delivered the numbers. the bank reduce the income level. what does that mean? they are optimistic by 18. what is -- what does that mean? anna: they are not satisfied with the developments in a letter part of 2017? -- in the latter part of 2017. manus, we need to talk about these earnings. the swedish mortgages, what kind of exposure to they want for that part of the business?
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manus: 7:30 a.m. in davos. where do you want to tune into echo aroldis waiting -- into? the world is waiting for donald trump to arrive. what will this message be? scaramucci wants to shatter the myth that he is only an america first president. hammond will be joining us from the world economic forum for his first interview of the day. the davos dollar was christened by anna edwards. anna: i stole that from juliette saly. many should moments. -- mnuchin moments.
i may have made that up. divan --re time to divine the time, nejra cehic. nejra: we're opening up flat -- when youo asian look across the region, weakness in china. japan stocks down more than 1%. the kospi bucking the trend, higher by 1%. you were just talking about the mnuchin moment. i am going to call it the mnuchin momentum. extended lows to a three-year low. let's get that dollar chart up. but this technical shows, it may accelerate this decline without the support. we have broken a trend to the downside. this weakness in the dollar, steve mnuchin said he wanted and he's gotten it. -- he wants it and he's gotten it. the yuan jumping the most in two years.
impact theo seen it em space. we have seen it impact the euro. check out euro-dollar, 124. his mario draghi want to do any jawboning -- is mario draghi going to do any jawboning against his currency? finally taking a look at crude. -- that apiing past data put a little bit of a stop to the support and the rally. then we got the crude from the eia and the rally resumed. this is a great chart. decorate deck is what i am looking at. it is the one year spread and we are talking about signals of science of demand. the spread the largest since 2014. anna: nordea reported a profit lagging behind estimates.
the bank says it is not satisfied expected slightly higher revenue. joining us now, i am pleased to welcome the ceo, casper von koskull. planned derisking, reducing income levels at the end of last year she said you are unsatisfied with the performance at the end of 2017. what is it that disappointed you? casper: there was one factor. that is the low volatility affecting our value. maybe not surprising that is the key driver of the weaker quarter. we have had a plan to de-risk the bank so we have reduced our exposures in sectors like the shipping and offshore and in russia. when i look at the underlying volumes and margins, they are very stable. i'm pretty pleased.
the derisking and low volatility has an impact in the fourth quarter, not really a trend and i expect a profit improvement in 18 -- in 2018. manus: you mentioned the cost. that is what came out when we did the flashes. october, we saw you added 6000 jobs. are there going to be more job cuts? where'd you take the cost from, from the human capital side? would you extrapolate -- where do you extrapolate more cost? casper: the cost really come through the business of the organization. it is when we change the way we work we are affecting the organization. we cannot start taking some benefits from investments. the last two years we invested heavily to big -- to make the
bank more robust. we de-risk the bank and built the balance sheet -- we de-risk the bank and built the balance sheet. forward in the coming we've alwaysk that had as our aim. anna: can you update us on our plans internationally? you have had conversations with but still buyers of some your banking assets. can you update us on your thinking? are you planning on selling parts of the business? casper: unfortunately, we do not comment on such plans or rumors in the market. i have to not comment. anna: difficult to comment but what about the overall wealth
management? soria cannot hear you. anna: -- sorry, i could not hear you. anna: what are your expectations for the wealth management side? casper: the wealth management is one of our core businesses and developed, we see good stable management. we see growth. our commission line has grown healthily. core and willh continue to be core. we have a fantastic this to be some platform. we have a strong asset management business. manus: develop an growth and wealth management. the whole world appears to be involved in a strategy.
move.o me about the that is set to be voted on tuesday. how is that progressing? what does it mean for capital in your situation? and the requirements of capital for nordea? this is notphasize a move from sweden to finland, it is a move from sweden to the banking union. bankove is to domicile the . it is one of our main home markets. it is too early to speculate on the capital. the banking union are being regulated by the ecb. it is directing for the bank. -- it is the right thing for the bank. that is where we get predictable and stable regulation. a level playing field with our european players -- european peers.
tohink it's too early speculate on the capital developed. it is the right place for a bank of our nature and size. the plan is proceeding as we have said. shareholder approval in march. step.s what is the next everything is moving according to plan. manus: you are actually assured, you have been with all the shareholders, you're confident vote will go through? this is a very good move in the right move for the bank. -- and the right move for the bank. we have had lots of discussions with the shareholders. manus: will the shareholder support it? casper: very positive response from all of the discussions.
we are going in with a lot of confidence. i am sure the shareholders see it the same way. anna: we have been following with interest, your policy around bitcoin. seems to have sparked some debate in scandinavia and more broadly as others watch to see the fallout. inyou feel sales tweaking the future? policy -- i think it is the right policy now. it is nothing really new a bank of our size, that we do have restrictions on where our employees invest. shorting stock, writing options is not allowed. a cryptocurrency today, we know is still very speculative or you can lose a lot. it is not regulated and it is the right policy. nothing really new in terms of
limiting or protecting our employees. it is somewhat overblown. it is the right step to take. it is aligned with our general policy, where and how our employees invest to protect them. manus: casper, thank you very much. thank you for joining anna and i. and breaking line coming through from nha. hna. they are pledging -- they are behind prison bank accounts. keep an eye on news coming nha share pledges are said to be behind frozen accounts. a little bit more on that. anna: this is a unit of hna group says some of its accounts were frozen because of a disagreement over the repayment of debt. that was the story earlier on
this morning. we'll keep that as a brics across the bloomberg. -- as it breaks across the bloomberg. manus: mario draghi is going to repeat that the returning to the inflation target relies on the ecb's pledge and at least another two junta 70 billion euros. anna: he is likely to be pushed to test the strength of the euro and get more insight on when the central bank will shift away from crisis era measures. maxing -- isw is maxine. i fear there will be much excitement around the press conference. draghi will try his best to be diplomatic. guest: comments from doubles continue. the eurobecause
depreciation is not the big if you look at the trade weighted euro. that is the one the ecb is looking at, it is just up 1%. the extent is quite limited. you also have to be quite hawkish because last time they did discuss the guidance. they did. ultimately, selling more hawkish. manus: you and i spoke yesterday . i did look at the deutsche bank trade weighted euro and it is up 8%. i can your point that we are only up 8% -- we're only up 1%. currency is something that will hate -- there will hurt the currency story. the spectrometer. draghi needs to move. do? thes draghi need to hawks are rising. move thehi need to central ground? that is what you
hinted at. >> he has to make sure he keeps a grip on the governing council and cannot afford to be too dovish and far away from the majority. the hawks are getting shorter because the data is getting better. he will have to make sure that he doesn't lose his authority. to that -- to do that, he will have to move more on the center. he will have to tweak the guidance very soon. anna: we have another graphic that shows the timeline of expectation. when the ecb will move on what. when they will tweak their guidance. when they will stop qe. what is the data telling us about the euro area economy? >> the data that we have come if you look at the pmi from yesterday, it ended the year on a high note. is strong telling us
growth is being carried over through the first quarter of the year. the momentum is still there. that is probably going to make the hawks feel stronger and that is not to add more pressure on the ecb to act first. in june, announcing the three-month extension the on september and ending qe at the end of this year. anna: when inflation is still behind target. thank you for your time. daybreak, we will have more from davos including our interview with the saudi aramco ceo. that is next. manus: christine lagarde joins bloomberg from the world economic forum. you don't want to miss that. this is bloomberg. ♪
over in davos, they wait with anticipation. trump is set to land with an american first message. what will he say to the assembled attendees? we will be speaking to theresa may live from the world economic forum. we have u.k. politics to update you on. saleh around just saudi aramco ceo says the most important -- will fluctuate with the price of oil. speaking to francine lacqua, he talked about the company's ipo plan says the decision is still being made. >> as a company, we are ready to be listed in the second half of 2018. the transaction team that will carry that is waiting for the .ecision from the shareholders
the venues that will be listed. because there's certain work any to be done in preparation for listing on the stock exchange. as a company, we are ready. hopefully we will be listed by second half of 2018. it is all depending on [indiscernible] -- francine: do you think the government is reaching it decision? >> saudi aramco is a major contributor to the gdp of saudi arabia. a lot of information was passed to the committees. they are looking at listing of saudi aramco. different stock exchanges decisions in each need to be evaluated and then ultimately
somebody needs to come up with a decision, pros and cons on each venue. that is a lot of work to what it, considering means for saudi arabia. francine: i'm try to understand your choice between two listings. his is a choice between the thing internationally or domestically -- is this a choice between listing internationally or domestically? , that isationally where the concentration is happening. work on lot of different stock exchanges. advantages ands pros and cons, in terms of dips and a lot of information. the committee is looking at all of that information and the
decision will come in due course. francine: is there a risk that this is not a global listing? why the reticence? >> nothing about listing only in the kingdom or going back and saying no, the committee is still evaluating the option of listing in kingdom and internationally. francine: what you think the committee is looking at? is it regulation? advantages of negotiating? >> a lot of the work is done by us and our consultants in terms of the different stock exchanges. [indiscernible] there is a lot of information. a lot of views. all of that needs to be looked at and it will come into course.
francine: when you look at the listing and pros and cons of different exchanges, if this is delayed on the international stage, do you think it will be less attractive for foreign investors investing in saudi aramco? >> a lot of things will happen when we do the roadshow. , a lot of investors will be interested regardless of the decision. a lot of information will be shared through our prospectus. we are confident in saudi aramco. we know the safety, the technology, so we are not concerned about the impact of saudi aramco. we are confident that the company performance and all of that will attract a lot of attention.
manus: confidence from the saudi aramco ceo. other companies aspects front of you. south african deputy president says the authorities are intensifying their anticorruption campaign. the government is having positive discussions with investors as expectations grow as he will succeed jacob zuma as president. he spoke with francine lacqua. corruption got quite bad. started seeping into state institutions, state owned enterprises and it took quite a bit of time for all of us to realize that this was a network which was well thought out which resulted in the capturing of the state. revealingaper started that itls, we realized
was former serious than what we had hoped. cleaning up is going to be quite a task, but we have got to start somewhere. i believe that we have already started. we're cleaning up our state enterprises and leslie we dismissed a whole board of electricity company that we have. we installed a new board and a new ceo. those who have been found complicit in wrongdoing have been removed and will be removed as we fine-tune. the wheels of change are moving now. they are going to start sweeping up as we go into other government departments, state owned enterprises. it is an imperative that we should clean up south africa. read our country of corruption,
because that is why -- that is what is holding us back from reaching higher levels of growth and our people are clamoring for a clean government and that is what we are going to do. >> do you think president zuma will step down before his term ends? >> we are in a transitional process right now. .e are discussing this matter there are quite a number of commentators, a number of ancers of the agency -- the that say he must leave right now. we have taken the view that this is a very delicate matter. he still has 1.5 years the service term out. we decided -- served his term out. we decided to monitor very carefully. what we don't want to see is the humiliation of a person who is a higher of state. we don't want to see is him being treated with disrespect. in the course of all of this, we
are winning his cooperation as far as managing this transition. we will manage it so well that it does not divide the nation. we will manage it in the interest of the people of south africa. africa's deputy president, rob opposer -- rob opposer. just take a look at it. we got a better story. the market will not change in south africa and that is the rhetoric he is delivering. .nna: south africa in force africa making its presence felt at this world economic forum. up next, we are back in davos to speak to the head of the imf, christine lagarde. what did she have to say about the comments we heard from the u.s. administration about currency? what will she make of the trade
manus: good morning from bloomberg's new european headquarters in london. anna: this is bloomberg daybreak: europe and these are the top stories. itss: the currency at lowest level in three years. woulddonald trump says he love to speak under oath about the pressure probe. the u.s. president arrives and demos. its first ecb holds policy meeting of the year. investors looking for comment on the stronger euro and timing of policy changes. welcome to the show.
it is 8:00 a.m. in dallas where global growth is part of the debate. to --s all according a the imf economic outlook. francine: we dragged tom keene out of bed. for giving us a little of your time. when you look at the world economic outlook you are a lot more positive than you have been in the past. what changed in the last six months? christine: we upgraded our forecast for 2018 and 2019. what is characteristic of the upgrade is it is significant. 2018 and 2019.
it covers a wide range of countries. it is not just the emerging markets leading the charge. it is pretty much across the board. for some countries which i am not seeing on a per capita basis income growing and that is the sub-saharan african countries. when you look a japan, germany, the u.s. turkey, some of the big emerging market economies, we haven't rated pretty much across our range -- we have upgraded across our range. we left the u.k. where it was. francine: president trump is showing up this morning to -- in the speech is tomorrow. he has a very pro-america first agenda. he is more protectionist is that hurt your forecast? christine: growth is up to trade even upper than growth.
inequalities and clearly, trade has to be fair, has to be in accordance with the rules, has to be reciprocated had by tools need to be the trade players to make sure this is the case. that is the area where everybody around somey rally of the themes of president trump. it is not an issue of being protectionist. protectionist measures generally do not help trade, do not help growth. looking at the rules, resetting some of the rules in view of what has happened in the last 10 years where they through financing and automation needs to be looked at. tom: everyone looked at the history of dollars dynamics. carrier with a new weaker dollar
policy. everything is against that. state for us and for global audience why the secretary is wrong and a weak dollar policy leads to no good. christine: the dollar is of all currencies the floating currency. and one where value is determined by markets. and geared by the fundamentals of the u.s. economy. we have said in our world economic outlook presentation on monday that the u.s. tax reform is likely to lead to u.s. dollar
medium-term. that is our assessment from a macroeconomic point of view. i hope secretary mnuchin has a chance to clarify what he said. we do not comment as imf on currencies. tom: you do not comment but their chief economist at the time said talks of a currency war are overblown. is your chief economic advisor going to have to tell you the currency war began on a wednesday and davos? christine: i hope that is not the case. there is so much to watch in , the of monetary policies flow of capitals between countries as the economy strengthens. it is not time to have any kind of currency war. as i said we support floating currencies at market determined rates. francine: are there any strengths in bitcoin? christine: i am from normandy. we do not like to say no. normand to make a response. some good and bad. yes and no. the is fascinating about
bitcoin movement because there are other cryptocurrencies as the technology that is underneath. it guarantees identification, authentication of transactions. is fascinating and that could be used in multiple , tracingnces transactions, land registry, you name it and some central banks are looking at it to use for their own currency. that is the interesting aspect of it. the not so interesting aspect is the anonymity of it is likely to facilitate money laundering, dark money moving around, and things that no one is happy we are looking for financial stability and transparency of financial transactions.
that is the dark side. i would add that the bitcoin mining which is this accelerated use of computers to determine the value and incentivize the functioning of the mechanism is energy intensive. we figured that in 2018 if it continues, that system will consume as much electricity as argentina. that is big and in times of climate change and when we look at how much coal is being used in some chinese provinces to mine bitcoins it is a bit concerning. do you see it as being accepted as part of the currency landscape we currently have? christine: the member the.com boom. the dot-com boom.
many of those just went away and were buried but of those we have amazon, paypal, we have a few big names. they -- there will be newcomers. the landscape will change. what needs to change as our regulatory approach to it. we cannot continue looking at things, the banks, the money market dealers. it has to be thought through differently. this historic to friday with the president of the united states attending, macron many consider to be soft power. what message will he listened for from the president given his sense of international relations and maybe the relations we will
see five years ago. a post-trump to world of international relations? thattine: i am not sure president macron, president trump do not have some concerns in common. they do not express it the same way. when i hear president macron say france's back, advocate the implemented he has and that he plans to rollout in the next few months, he is the best marketing person for the country. he is not saying brands great again but he is saying france is back. i do not know any leader who is not doing that for his own or her own country. tom: what is president trump doing that has created such a poor and outrage in the international community? christine: when you listened to president macron's speech
yesterday he was focused on look at what we have done that he is seeing it as part of a regional society called europe and he made hard recommendations. more importantly and relevant to the u.s. position, he also sees any economic development as part scene requiring a new global contract. i hope that that dimension of the global landscape, the global state of play, the fact that you cannot be great alone, you have to be great with others, and i a rule-basedect of system which is respectful of each and every national identity, sovereignty him a while opening trade barriers, while making sure that people are not excluded, while making sure people are prepared for that, trained for the new
technologies, i think that is the big challenge that we have going forward. everyone should be rallying around that. francine: how can europe addressed germany's account surplus but also public spending? weistine: this is something have been repeatedly advocating for germany. some of it is warranted by the fundamentals of germany, by the aging of society. fine, but not as much as that. what we are suggesting is not necessarily to lose competitiveness but to invest. too much saving, not enough investment. there are investments to made in the future, in education, broadband, and grids. to be fair, germany is trying to funds and is earmarking are you difficulty they have is purehave too much red tape
argosy, regulatory hurdles to accelerate this investment movement. that is something to be looked at. the only this is country that you have not raised forecasts for. do you -- worry that exit will turn ugly? christine: i hope europeans will be civilized enough not to turn that into something ugly and i hope they can focus on both the economy and the transition and the predictability of what will happen. we look at it from an economic and financial point of view. take politics and emotion aside. it is important that people know where they stand promptly. is running fast. and yes, they have completed stage one but there is a big stage two with lots of agreements that need to be looked at. custom unions, to be identified in terms of what is going to change. the details. shipping goods from the u.k. to
france. how will across the channel, what will be the formalities? tom: you -- this was what you know when you are minister of france. i loved your phrase the new global contract. how do we give each nation's individual stories into that new global contract? do we have to reinvigorate with a new atlantic charter, do we have to do new multilateral dialogue, or as mr. trump -- suggest is trump was every nation for themselves. there are common denominator's that are dear necessary for a countries. think about security. think about the fight against terrorism. think about the fight against endemic. think about the impact on the environment of human activity and how we can damage it for long. i am a diver, i love coral. what isrified but -- by
happening with coral. there are some fundamentals that we should rally around. human rights as mentioned by president macron is one of them. there is a universal basis around which i would hope that nations, people, and their leaders can rally around and from that each nation will have to find its own benefits and interests. isple are guided by what going to drive them and bring them rewards. francine: is the -- if there is a retrenchment do we wake up and realize china is the one that filled the space? pristine: we need to make a big effort to understand china. china has been a leader in the global community for centuries. , they havey improved their situation, eliminated poverty,
eradicated hunger in the main, they are becoming concerned about their environment at last. i do not know how they perceive leadership and if they want to be ahead. they certainly have ambitions to be one of the leaders. you had an acclaimed speech at the london school of economics where you talk about nations to dance again. how do we get china to dance again in a more productive way? christine: i hope very soon they realize, all of us realize that trade war, retaliation, is just not helpful for economies. that globalove to order. new global contract. i love that phrase. lagarde, theistine managing director of the international monetary fund. back to you in london.
we have great interviews coming throughout the day including a conversation with the british prime investor. anna: theresa may joining you in davos. interesting. we are getting breaking news here in london. we have corporate results coming from sky. tda hasirst half ebi risen, anding three headed 65 new customers in the first half of the year. the u.k. remains the biggest market. how they are doing in the market the biggest focus but they are waiting for the green light light from mcgill leaders and politicians to allow themselves by [indiscernible]
some competition in markets. they still have concerns about murdoch gaining too much influence over british media. that is something we are watching. and taking -- what do you have on the drinks front? half profitsrst come in at 6.5 billion, a shade below with the market expected. operating profit 2.2 billion. that is above the estimates. they are talking about the impact of foreign exchange. for the full year they will be hit by 460 million pounds area this is something that morgan stanley had guided, the recent dollar weakness would put pressure on the earnings in the short term although demand is improving in emerging markets for that. they bought george clooney's
tequila brand and spent $1 billion and reentered the irish whiskey category. bush mills back to jose cuervo in 2014. it is the fx impact that is being discussed in these numbers. 460 million pounds. we will have a conversation with the ceo joining us later. you can catch that at 8:30 a.m. this morning. anna: let's get a bloomberg business flash. here's juliette saly. juliette: as u.s. president trump is set to arrive in demos, his advisers have signaled a toughening stance on trade. the dollar suffered its steepest slide since march after treasury secretary steve mnuchin said a weaker currency is good for u.s. trade. u.s. commerce secretary wilbur ross said that any protectionist agenda in america pales in
comparison to china's. ross found himself defending the trump administration's america first mantra in a panel at the world economic forum yesterday as he faced a group of strong champions of globalization. the world's second richest person or that the campaign could damage u.s. influence around the world. said --g -- bill gates urged the president to do more to help the poor. that isnk you should, the area where i have chosen to take the wealth that was created through microsoft and that warren buffett has been so generous in providing. i understand that money can be very well spent. i am in there saying, come on, let's keep up the good work. juliette: that is your bloomberg business flash.
anna and manus. manus: thank you. let's get back to francine. great line from christine lagarde, you cannot be great alone but you can always be great together. francine: we are joined by the nce's largest communications provider and this is his first interview of the day. thanks word joining us. -- for joining us. about 3g, 4g, or a mood of euphoria? that wee can expect have some debate about protectionism, not protectionism ,nd our president macron france and europe are in favor of opening the barriers in the international commerce.
in terms of technology, i do not see any major net neutrality which is an ongoing debate in the u.s., not so much in europe. we are probably much more focused on running out the networks of the digital world. -- will remain a target in the short-term and also to compete with the giants of the internet in the u.s. and china. there were some words about chinese players in this industry. isthe internet age, data [indiscernible] business,for the important for security also. they are the big animals of the world.
francine: when you look at the -- are yound affected by it? there is concern about credit lines and debt load. debt.ve also a very big are you managing it differently because you are looking at what happened? guest: it is twice larger. i think it is easy to say that we have no problem of that kind. we have the best rating of the industry and we have paid a lot of attention to keep our debt under control. we had some problems with debt. today it is not the case. an uncertain world. we have been accustomed to is the money. from central banks and from the financial markets.
this is very dangerous. in my view, as far as orange is concerned, we will be disciplined in the way we are managing our balance sheet and debt specifically and i do not intend to move from the kind of betweenat we target [indiscernible] which is our case. francine: would you be interested in buying [indiscernible] i cannot because of competition. it would be impossible to manage approvalny kind of a from antitrust authorities. francine: what about tv rights? guest: we are open-minded in discussing the distribution of those programs. i am talking about [indiscernible] in france. other people want to be able to
watch those games. as a mentioned, we will try to find an agreement. francine: talk to me about network expansion. what does that mean for prices? guest: it does not mean anything for prices. prices result from competition, from regulation. especially from competition. and the countries where we operate in europe, france, spain, poland, romania, the competition is so intense that no one can expect that you would have a real move on prices. we have to invest into the networks to differentiate and to be able to gain market share and to make our users and customers satisfied.
but it does not imply that we will increase prices. francine: do you expect consolidation in telecom this year? guest: most consolidation is over. we have mobile to mobile [indiscernible] in europe. i do not expect a new round of consolidation. where much more -- we are much more focused on investing, investing into [indiscernible] maybe investing into new areas of services in order to be in this user interface better which is so critical. consolidation. francine: the french government owns a large chunk of orange. with they reduce it -- will they reduce the stake or sell it? everyonehave heard as from the government to consider
and review the level of their shareholdership in orange but in the short term, i do not expect anything. for joiningank you us. the chief executive officer of orange and we have plenty more today including theresa may and we speak to the chancellor and many more. anna: theresa may be joining us. thank you. the british prime minister joining us in davos. conversations are having -- happening? philip hammond be talking to the program as well. talking to bloomberg television so there is lots to watch for. waits for theld president of the u.s. to arrive. is bringing the largest delegation ever with a message, they say, america first. how does that fit with the
guy: good morning and welcome. this is the european open. i am guide johnson in our new london headquarters alongside matt miller. open less than 30 minutes away. ♪ guy: good morning. how dovish does draghi have to be to slow the euro's rapid rise? the ecb decision is at 1:45 p.m. in frankfurt. the press conference is 45 minutes later. we will take you live. lula loses.